INTERNATIONAL: Any agreement is unlikely to end the bloodshed that has engulfed the country since last February, 2020 coup. But Prime Minister Hun Sen has placed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ Five-Point Consensus for peace in Myanmar back on the regional agenda during his two-day visit to the country.
Cambodia is this year’s ASEAN chair and Prime Minister’s Hun Sen’s visit to Myanmar, is the first state visit by a foreign leader since the coup after ASEAN failed to enforce the consensus.
The consensus calls for an immediate cessation of violence, constructive dialogue among all the parties, mediation to be facilitated by an envoy of ASEAN's chair with the assistance of the secretary-general, humanitarian assistance and a visit by the special envoy to Myanmar.
A statement issued after Hun Sen’s meeting has reaffirmed the consensus. Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn has told reporters “If Myanmar is in the midst of a civil war crisis, as we are concerned, it will have a devastating effect on our region, a bad reputation on ASEAN as well as ASEAN unity, so helping Myanmar is like helping ASEAN.”
The violence and civil war in Myanmar have not stop, as shown by the continuing violence, but Prime Minister Hun Sen had created an opportunity to move the crisis out of its existing stalemate.
The result will have to wait until the ASEAN foreign ministers retreat and see how this plays out and the reaction from the various ASEAN capitals. The planned January 18-19 retreat in the northern Cambodian town of Siem Reap is an informal gathering of foreign ministers from the 10 ASEAN countries, to discuss issues facing the bloc.
Failure to enforce the consensus resulted in General Min Aung Hlaing being denied entry to the October ASEAN summit and the ASEAN-China summit the next month.
Prime Minister Hun Sen got what he had asked for, and that included an extension by the military of a cease-fire agreement with ethnic groups until the end of this year, instead of until the end February.
However, Cambodia’s premier did not meet with Aung San Suu Kyi, the jailed de facto leader of the former elected government. A court in military-ruled Myanmar has sentenced ousted leader on Monday to four years in jail on several charges, including the possession of unlicensed walkie-talkies, according to a source familiar with the proceedings. She is on trial for nearly a dozen cases that carry a combined sentence of more than 100 years in prison.
That was a sticking point during the two-day visit, which was sharply criticized by human rights groups as legitimizing the military leadership and as a tool for Cambodia’s prime minister Hun Sen to deflect criticism from his own human rights record and a harsh crackdown on dissent at home.
Nevertheless, the meeting “seems to suggest” that the ASEAN special envoy, Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn, would eventually be allowed to negotiate with Suu Kyi and her supporters.
Most ASEAN states have condemned the coup and the ensuing crisis, which has claimed more than 1,400 lives, including the massacre of more than 30 people in Kayah state on Christmas Eve while intensive attacks in Karen state continued throughout December.
The real test will arrive when ASEAN ministers begin their annual summits and whether or not Myanmar leaders will be allowed to attend, including possible meetings in Washington between ASEAN heads of state and U.S. President Joe Biden.
That meeting was expected to be held later this month but is yet to be confirmed.
